Opening Weekend Box Office Analysis (2/6/10)-(2/8/10)

This time the blizzard didn’t destroy me and my bet going long on Dear John. I should consider myself lucky for missing something so obvious, again. I don’t think this blizzard was as big as the last one and I had always thought that the effect of the last blizzard was around minus 10% to 15%. Dear John may have actually been bigger had the blizzard not hit. Other then the blizzard all signs pointed to a big weekend for Dear John and I couldn’t the Super Bowl making that big of a dent.

Movie	Prediction	Actual	Absolute (%) Difference
Dear John	$25,940,000	$30,468,614	17.46%
From Paris with Love	$11,610,000	$8,158,860	29.73%
--	--	Opening Weekend Average	23.59%

This weekend we have a 4-Day weekend with Valentine’s Day on Sunday and President’s Day on Monday. Tracking has the movie Valentine’s Day opening in first place for this weekend and even though it looks similar to last year’s He’s Just Not That into You, it appears to be tracking higher. The Wolfman with Benicio Del Toro could have a decent weekend.

Movie	MTC	RS
Valentine’s Day	$50 Million	$42.5 Million (Low 40’s)
The Wolfman	$33 Million	$32.5 Million (Low 30’s)
Percy and the Olympians	$26 Million	$27.5 Million (High 20’s)

Weekend Box Office Predictions & Bets (2/6/10)-(2/8/10)

For Super Bowl Sunday, a weekend that will no doubt hurt male movies the most, Dear John looks like the first real movie that has a chance to take the #1 Weekend spot from Avatar. With the Super Bowl on Sunday, I think Avatar will win Saturday but lose Sunday. Friday should go easily to Dear John so if it doesn’t my predictions and bets will be in trouble.

From Paris with Love looks like it is going to bomb and not do very well at all. Unfortunate, because I thought the director of Taken could have had another sleeper hit on his hands. This weekend I went long on Dear John at the $20 Million and $22 Million price point. I bet a little more than I usually do but that is because I felt I got better odds than I should have. No bets on Intertops since I didn't like those odds as much.

Movie	Opening Weekend Prediction
Dear John	$25.94 Million
From Paris with Love	$11.61 Million

Can You Filibuster Reconciliation?

Senator Jim DeMint seems to think so.

From The Hill article Republicans find loophole in budget ploy to push healthcare,

Though it has never been done, Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) says he’s prepared to test the Senate’s stamina to block the Democrats from using the process to expedite changes to the healthcare bill.

Experts on Senate procedural rules, from both parties, note that such a filibuster is possible. While reconciliation rules limit debate to 20 hours, senators lack similiarconstraints on amendments and could conceivably continue offering them until 60 members agree to cut the process off.

The OBAMACARE.PASS.JUN10 contract on Intrade is currently being traded at around 35%.

Weekend Box Office Results & Analysis (1/29/10)-(1/31/10)

Well this week my model did well and helped me win this weekend. I won my hedge on Intertops and my original bets on Intrade as well. Edge of Darkness passed $16 Million but not the $18 Million that would have been disastrous for me. When in Rome came in around expected and my estimate underestimated it a little. Mel Gibson is finally getting work again not like he needed the money and Edge of Darkness will help him get over his past.

Movie	Prediction	Actual	Absolute (%) Difference
Edge of Darkness	$14.86 Million	$17,214,384	15.84%
When in Rome	$11.08 Million	$12,350,041	11.46%
--	--	Opening Weekend Average	13.65%

Here is tracking for “Dear John” and “From Paris With Love”, it seems clear that “Dear John” will be able to be the #1 Opening Weekend but Avatar will probably be #1 overall again. Sometime today it will be the #1 movie in the U.S all time. Incredible! Not only that, but the nominees for the Academy Awards were announced today. What a funny coincidence.

Movie	MTC	RS
Dear John	$24 Million	$17.5 Million (High Teens)
From Paris with Love	$12 Million	$15 Million (Mid Teens)

Weekend Box Office Predictions & Bets (1/29/10)-(1/31/10)

The big question mark this weekend is how much will Edge of Darkness gross for Opening Weekend? Mel Gibson’s new movie is based off a BBC TV series in the 1980’s and has the same director. From what I hear, the series was quite good and so have the reviews for the movie. Despite some predictions in the $20 Million+ range, my model is still predicting an Opening Weekend below expectations. When in Rome seems like it is going to come in right as expected and will probably not surprise anyone.

I found out recently about a betting site that offers betting lines for movies on opening weekend. I put some money on www.intertops.com and will be betting there as well as on Intrade. On Intrade I am shorting Edge of Darkness on the $16 Million price point for 60% and the $18 Million price point at 70%. On Intertops I hedged by putting equal bets on $11-$16 Million at +150 and $16-$21 Million at +150.

Movie	Opening Weekend Prediction
Edge of Darkness	$14.86 Million
When in Rome	$11.08 Million

P.S – Sorry, for the late posting but my internet was down for most of the day.

Twitter and The State of the Union

This is a pretty cool video of how Twitter is being used to measure how people are reacting to the State of the Union. The amount of information that could be gathered for research must be astronomical.

The Democrats are Falling Apart

So now after the humiliating defeat in Massachusetts, Obama has announced a three year freeze on discretionary spending. It’s something Obama debated against during the campaign and the left hates it. It looks like they are pandering to the Tea Party. But I think there might be a little turf war going on with the Congress and the White House.

The Congress screws up health-care way before Massachusetts, but that put the final nail in the coffin. He announces new banking regulation and a bi-partisan task force to cut the deficit. Before that task force can even be approved, he announces this new cut. The Senate has rejected his bi-partisan task force, probably because of his most recent move. Could Bernanke’s confirmation also be a casualty of this entire debacle. According to the Huffington Post, Democratic leaders are having a tough time getting the 60 votes and are making deals for some Senators to vote to just end debate and not have to approve Bernanke. Currently Intrade gives Bernanke a 94.5% chance of being reconfirmed.

The State of the Union is really going to be interesting now. What is he going to say? What policies is he going to pursue now with health-care going down the drain. The State of the Union is Wednesday at 9:00PM EST. What will he say?

Weekend Box Office Analysis (1/22/10)-(1/24/10)

Well just when I thought things were going okay. I get screwed over by $10,409. The Tooth Fairy did not meet some high expectations as I predicted but it wasn’t quite as low either. $14 Million was my break-even point and it went just right over. The good thing is that the model predicted that Legion would beat out Tooth Fairy which it did. Extraordinary Measures came in small like expected.

Movies	Prediction	Actual	Absolute (%) Difference
Legion	16,380,000	17,501,625	6.85%
Tooth Fairy	11,570,000	14,010,409	21.09%
Extraordinary Measures	7,650,000	6,012,594	21.40%
		Average	16.45%

This week does not look too good for movies opening this week either. Avatar will probably be #1 again. It has already broken Titanic’s record and it will still be the #1 movie at the weekend box office. Amazing. I thought Edge of Darkness with Mel Gibson was building up a little word of mouth but I’m not so sure now. We’ll see how the weekend turns out.

	MTC	RS
Edge of Darkness	$15 Million	$22.5 Million (Between 21-24)
When in Rome	$11 Million	$12.5 Million (Almost Teen Millions)